What drives us?
Readingtime: approx. 20 minutes What drives us? There are still billions of vehicles with internal combustion engines on the road today. However, the end of fossil fuel-driven mobility is in sight. From 2030 onward, it will no longer be possible to register new gasoline and diesel vehicles in China, India, the Netherlands and Ireland because of climate concerns. And since conventional oil sources have already exceeded their peak, it is clear that, sooner or later, conventional internal combustion engines will run out of fossil fuel.
But what happens next? What will transport us and power the automobile in 2025? And what kind of propulsion systems will we be using in 2050? We will explore these questions in this tour of the most promising alternative storage media and drive types.
STATION 1 – In the Synthetic Fuel Laboratory
STATION 2 – A Quick Stop at the Hydrogen Electrolyzer
STATION 3 – Charging up in Battery Production
STATION 4 – Reality Check at the Power Grid
STATION 5 – A Flying Visit to the Dealership
STATION 6 – The Road to 2050
EPILOG – In the Fast Lane
STATION 2 – A Quick Stop at the Hydrogen Electrolyzer
STATION 3 – Charging up in Battery Production
STATION 4 – Reality Check at the Power Grid
STATION 5 – A Flying Visit to the Dealership
STATION 6 – The Road to 2050
EPILOG – In the Fast Lane
STATION 1In the Synthetic Fuel Laboratory
“E-fuels offer huge potential.”Tim Böltken, Managing Director of the start-up Ineratec
What if we could use wind or solar power to generate gasoline or diesel, and not fossil oil? This idea may sound like technical sleight of hand but this is the reality promised by e-fuels, for which the addition of “e” to the name represents the use of renewable energy. To produce e-fuels, hydrogen is first generated using electricity and refined in the refinery with carbon dioxide to create gas, diesel, kerosene or petrol. If green electricity and CO2 from the air are used, this production process is completely climate neutral. Since the chemical properties of these synthetic fuels are no different from fossil fuels, they can be used for refueling in the same way as conventional fuel. If e-fuels were used, there would be no need to convert the 46 million vehicles on German roads or the filling station infrastructure in order to be climate neutral. Now that’s the good news.
Here’s the less good news: The process of generating e-fuels is extremely energy intensive. According to the German think tank Agora Verkehrswende, a battery-powered electric car needs 15 kilowatt hours of electricity to drive 100 kilometers, while a hydrogen-powered car needs 31. A diesel or gasoline engine powered by e-fuels needs as much as 103 kilowatt hours. From an environmental perspective, this would only make sense if green electricity was abundant. In reality, the opposite is true. Audi is the only German car manufacturer to use synthetic fuels. The Ingolstadt-based brand operates a small plant in Werlte, Lower Saxony, where synthetic gas is produced using green electricity. Start-ups like Ineratec and around 20 research projects are also investigating the potential of e-fuels. There is still a long way to go before these green fuels will power vehicles in significant numbers.
“You can mix e-fuels with current fossil fuels for an immediate CO2-reducing effect across the entire vehicle stock – and not just in newly sold vehicles.” Volkmar Denner, Chairman of the Board of Management, Bosch GmbH
“When it comes to the climate balance of a vehicle with an internal combustion engine powered by electricity-based liquid fuels, greenhouse gas emissions are around three times higher than those of a 35-kWh battery-powered vehicle.” – The “Agora Verkehrswende” think tank, “Klimabilanz von strombasierten Antrieben und KraftstoffenClimate Balance of Electricity-Based Drives and Fuels
STATION 2 – A Quick Stop at the Hydrogen Electrolyzer
STATION 2A Quick Stop at the Hydrogen Electrolyzer
“Hydrogen is suitable for rockets, not cars.” Elon Musk
At first glance, hydrogen seems to be ideal for energy storage. This element can be produced from water in a CO2-neutral process using surplus wind or solar power (“power-to-gas”). It has a high energy density, can be quickly used for refueling and “burns” in the fuel cell to form harmless water vapor. No wonder, many people believe the combination of hydrogen and fuel cells is a promising alternative to the combination of battery and electric drive.
According to Anja Karliczek of Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research, hydrogen has what it takes to become a climate savior. “Green, imported hydrogen is tomorrow’s oil, but without the damaging consequences of its combustion.” According to the Federal Government, Germany will cover more than 50 per cent of its energy requirements from imported hydrogen by 2050. The energy will have to be generated in Australia and Africa using solar power and then imported to Germany.However, at second glance the prospects for this climate savior look much more bleak, at least in the short term. Power-to-gas plants are so expensive that short-term operation is not worthwhile in the event of strong winds. Three quarters of the energy is lost during conversion. And then there are the safety risks of this explosive energy carrier, which were suddenly brought to public attention in June 2019 when a hydrogen filling station exploded near Oslo.
“Thanks to the small number of compatible vehicles, we have not seen any devastating accidents so far,” says hydrogen expert Prof. Maximilian Fichtner. “But if the 700-bar tank of a fuel cell car were to be severely damaged – in a crash with a truck, for example – the explosion could kill or seriously injure all people within a radius of 50 meters.”
It is quite a different story for stationary hydrogen fuel cell plants. In Japan, hundreds of thousands of decentralized fuel cells relieve the power grid and simultaneously produce heat; hydrogen also makes sense as an energy source for industrial plants. As mobile energy storage for cars, the element is still too expensive, inefficient and immature in terms of infrastructure and safety.
It is quite a different story for stationary hydrogen fuel cell plants. In Japan, hundreds of thousands of decentralized fuel cells relieve the power grid and simultaneously produce heat; hydrogen also makes sense as an energy source for industrial plants. As mobile energy storage for cars, the element is still too expensive, inefficient and immature in terms of infrastructure and safety.
“It makes sense for the fossil fuel industry to lobby for the hydrogen car because hydrogen is essentially a product line extension for them. In other words, the “Hydrogen Economy” is the “Fossil Fuel Economy” with a green sheen.”Tony Seba, Silicon Valley investor and solar visionary
“Hydrogen is an unfulfilled promise for the future.”Volker Quaschning, Professor of Renewable Energy Systems at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin
STATION 3 – Charging up in Battery Production
STATION 3Charging up in Battery Production
“The speed at which battery costs decline is a critical variable for power markets as well as for electric cars. The share of electricity in final consumption, less than half that of oil today, overtakes oil by 2040.”“World Energy Outlook 2019,” International Energy Agency (IEA)
Do you want to use an electric car to circle the Earth 40 times? At a time when some electric car owners are happy if their vehicle simply manages to cover a long distance in one go, this sounds like utopia. But some months ago, Jeff Dahn, Tesla’s battery research partner, unveiled a battery cell that is said to last a million miles, or 40 laps of the Earth. Today, Tesla’s fleet vehicles already achieve mileages of more than 500,000 kilometers, meaning their climate balance is improving all the time. And that’s not the only good news for the electric drive: Virtually all of the well-known manufacturers currently use a combination of battery and electric motor. Volkswagen assumes that by 2030 every second vehicle sold will have a battery-powered drive. Based on current figures, that would be more than five million electric vehicles a year. “Where we are with electric drives today is where we were with the internal combustion engine around 1900,” says Holger Sagkob, automotive expert at MHP. Once electric mobility takes off, says Sagkob, it will take hold at a speed similar to that of wireless communications in recent decades. When a battery and electric motor are used for mobility purposes, this combination not only offers high efficiency, but also has a significant secondary benefit: Connected to the intelligent power grid, electric vehicles could be used to supply operating reserves for the grid. Electric vehicle batteries could store excess wind or solar power – and retrieve it from the grid when needed. In this way, e-mobility can help to stabilize the energy supply in the age of green electricity.
“By 2030, 100 per cent of cars will be electric and they will be 100 per cent powered by solar and wind.” Tony Seba, Silicon Valley investor and solar visionary
“For electric batteries, time acts as an energy storage medium: Their performance is getting better and prices are falling by 12–15 per cent every year.” Maximilian Fichtner, Professor for Solid State Chemistry at Ulm University
STATION 4 – A Flying Visit to the Dealership
STATION 4A Flying Visit to the Dealership
“Hydrogen fuel cells will become much more important for larger vehicles with bigger range requirements and for commercial vehicles.” Alain Uyttenhoven, President, Toyota Deutschland
Which position have manufacturers taken on hydrogen as an alternative to batteries? Some 24 years ago, they still saw hydrogen and fuel cells as the drive combination of the future. At that time, all leading car manufacturers operated their own research centers for developing fuel cell vehicles. Today, they are all relying on e-mobility – and the euphoria that once surrounded H2 has vanished like a rather volatile gas. One of the few exceptions is Toyota. The Japanese automotive giant is taking a dual approach, using battery-powered electric cars for short distances and hydrogen drives for long distances. “It will probably take ten, twenty years or perhaps even longer before we see fuel cell vehicles breaking through,” says Toyota’s Chief Engineer, Yoshikazu Tanaka. But this strategy comes at a price. “A fuel cell plus battery currently costs between EUR 15,000 and 20,000 per vehicle,” says Dr. Jürgen Weber, automotive expert at MHP. “This does not add up for Toyota or anyone else.” The Mirai, Toyota’s fuel cell vehicle, is currently available for around EUR 80,000 – a collector’s price, but one that fails to even cover its manufacturing costs.
But just like in 1997 when it unveiled the hybrid Prius, Toyota can present itself as a pioneer in the automotive industry. At that time, the Japanese company faced widespread ridicule. But it has since sold more than eight million hybrid cars. Who knows if history will repeat itself for fuel cell vehicles? The Japanese government wants to put around 800,000 fuel cell cars on the road by 2030. South Korea has a target of 630,000 vehicles with hydrogen in the tank.
STATION 5 – Reality Check at the Power Grid
STATION 5Reality Check at the Power Grid
“The stalled expansion of renewable energies in Germany is a disaster. We must find a social consensus as soon as possible: We can’t let our children fry one day in the future because some of us don’t want to have wind turbines on our doorstep today.” Volker Quaschning, Professor for Renewable Energy Systems at the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin
In the short term, electric vehicles certainly have their noses in front of their rival drives. But what about the long haul? In the future, the question of energy storage systems and drive types will have three key themes: Where does the energy come from? How much does it cost? And what are the political circumstances surrounding its production?
After all, the energy stored in tanks or batteries first needs to be generated. But renewable energies will be extremely scarce in the decades leading to 2050, when industry, agriculture and real estate are also shifting to climate neutrality. “Road traffic in Germany currently consumes about 770 terawatt hours of energy per year. With efficient e-mobility, we could reduce this demand to 150 terawatt hours. However, the energy demand from hydrogen drives would increase to 1,000 terawatt hours per year. With e-fuels, it would be around 1,500 terawatt hours – so we would use even more energy than we do today,” says Prof. Maximilian Fichtner.
For now, this high energy demand is a clear argument against the use of energy-intensive e-fuels and hydrogen.
STATION 6 – The Road to 2050
STATION 6The Road to 2050
“We have to use hydrogen where it makes sense: in heavy goods traffic, in industry, maybe even in aviation.” Maximilian Fichtner, Professor of Solid State Chemistry at Ulm University
Nevertheless, e-fuels and, above all, hydrogen could be given a new opportunity in the coming decades. If CO2 prices and savings targets increase in the years after 2030, H2 could become more of a focus as energy storage for motor vehicles. Since a hydrogen tank holds significantly more energy than an electric car battery, hydrogen would be the ideal energy storage medium for long-distance drivers and freight transport. With increasing numbers of units, it would even be possible to control the high costs: Studies show that at a production volume of 100,000 units, cost reductions of up to 85 per cent could be achieved.
Whether this really happens depends on a number of variables. Experts are therefore divided on the opportunities presented by the individual drive types. The only thing they can agree on is that fossil fuels have no future.
EPILOG – In the Fast Lane
EPILOGIn the Fast Lane
“Hydrogen makes me certain that fuel cells will not play a role in the next ten years.”Herbert Diess, Chairman of the Board of Management at Volkswagen
So how will we travel in the future? The decade ahead will most likely be the age of e-mobility. But on this journey, we will also find that batteries and electric drives are not suitable for all vehicles and applications. We will discover the need of new types of energy for trucks, long-distance journeys, diesel locomotives and airplanes. And that there is no way to achieve the climate protection targets for 2030 in the transport sector (40–42 per cent reduction compared to 1990) through batteries and electric drives alone.So it is quite possible that hydrogen and e-fuel will experience a renaissance in a few years’ time. Much will depend on how quickly we expand wind, solar and hydroelectric capacity. If green electricity was available in abundance, hydrogen and e-fuel as storage media would suddenly be of interest – for example for freight traffic, railways and aviation. In these cases, battery storage systems will offer much too low an energy density in the foreseeable future.
The question of what will drive our individual mobility is therefore a question about our future source of energy – and whether we are working toward it with all our energy.
Maximilian Fichtner, Professor für Festkörperchemie an der Universität Ulm
Dr. Jürgen Weber, Automotive-Experte, MHP
Volker Quaschning, Professor für regenerative Energiesysteme an der Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin
Dr. Carl-Friedrich Elmer, Projektleiter Verkehrsökonomie bei der Agora Verkehrswende
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What drives us?
In the Synthetic Fuel Laboratory
“E-fuels offer huge potential.”
“You can mix e-fuels with current fossil fuels for an immediate CO2-reducing effect across the entire vehicle stock – and not just in newly sold vehicles.”
Progress Report E-Fuels
A Quick Stop at the Hydrogen Electrolyzer
“Hydrogen is suitable for rockets, not cars.”
POWER TO GAS
“It makes sense for the fossil fuel industry to lobby for the hydrogen car because hydrogen is essentially a product line extension for them. In other words, the “Hydrogen Economy” is the “Fossil Fuel Economy” with a green sheen.”
“Hydrogen is an unfulfilled promise for the future.”
Progress Report Hydrogen
Charging up in Battery Production
“The speed at which battery costs decline is a critical variable for power markets as well as for electric cars. The share of electricity in final consumption, less than half that of oil today, overtakes oil by 2040.”
“By 2030, 100 per cent of cars will be electric and they will be 100 per cent powered by solar and wind.”
“For electric batteries, time acts as an energy storage medium: Their performance is getting better and prices are falling by 12–15 per cent every year.”
Progress Report Batteries
A Flying Visit to the Dealership
Who knows if history will repeat itself for fuel cell vehicles? The Japanese government wants to put around 800,000 fuel cell cars on the road by 2030. South Korea has a target of 630,000 vehicles with hydrogen in the tank.
Reality Check at the Power Grid
“The stalled expansion of renewable energies in Germany is a disaster. We must find a social consensus as soon as possible: We can’t let our children fry one day in the future because some of us don’t want to have wind turbines on our doorstep today.”
Where does the energy come from? How much does it cost? And what are the political circumstances surrounding its production?
For now, this high energy demand is a clear argument against the use of energy-intensive e-fuels and hydrogen.
The Road to 2050
Whether this really happens depends on a number of variables. Experts are therefore divided on the opportunities presented by the individual drive types. The only thing they can agree on is that fossil fuels have no future.
Forecast by Maximilian Fichtner
Forecast by Dr. Jürgen Weber
Forecast by Volker Quaschning
Forecast by Dr. Carl-Friedrich Elmer
In the Fast Lane
“Hydrogen makes me certain that fuel cells will not play a role in the next ten years.”
The question of what will drive our individual mobility is therefore a question about our future source of energy – and whether we are working toward it with all our energy.
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